Of my areas of interest, the two that stand out are violence prevention and technology. This year marks the 20th anniversary of the Rwanda genocide, and I've been keeping track of the media coverage which has included the usual themes of never again, and a call to seek the tools and capacity to prevent such … Continue reading The Prevention Problem: Thinking about Rwanda 20 years later
Conflict
Learnings from ISA
Another March, another ISA conference. 2014 has been good, especially since the networking and socializing was matched by excellent feedback on what I presented. The highlights: What I thought was a failed experiment in getting Twitter to love me actually teased out some interesting methodological challenges that other panelists on the Crowdsourcing Violence panel faced. … Continue reading Learnings from ISA
Finding Big Data’s Place in Conflict Analysis
Daniel Solomon recently posted a piece on how we conceptualize (and often misconceptualize) the role of big data in conflict event prediction. His post got me thinking about what role big data plays in conflict analysis. This comes on the heels of Chris Neu's post on the TechChange blog about the limits of using crowdsourcing to … Continue reading Finding Big Data’s Place in Conflict Analysis
New post on the TechChange blog!
I just had a new post go up on the TechChange blog - I haven't written for them in a while, so it feels good to be writing for them again!Here's a brief intro, and you can read the rest here:"In recent years, mobile phones have drawn tremendous interest from the conflict management community. Given … Continue reading New post on the TechChange blog!
Peacekeeping, economic growth and technology
The economics of peacekeeping are difficult to unpack but there are signs that when a mission has a strategy that includes long-range economic planning, it can have positive long term effects on the host country’s economy. This could help us understand the strategic value of communication technology as not just a tool for good governance … Continue reading Peacekeeping, economic growth and technology
Syria Update
Yesterday I mentioned the need to be transparent with our intelligence on chemical weapons use in Syria if we wanted to take the moral high ground. Today I read the release outlining the U.S. intelligence findings on the attack. The Huffington Post linked to this, along with a quote from Secretary of State Kerry that … Continue reading Syria Update
Getting traction in the United Nations on Syria
As I've been following story of the chemical weapons attacks in Syria, and the resulting moves to prepare for military strikes, I've felt like the U.N. has been an under-utilized resource for dealing with the crisis. A few friends mention that President Obama's 'red line' could be defined as something other than a military strike, … Continue reading Getting traction in the United Nations on Syria
Unpacking P-values: Turning statistical significance into practical significance
I often get questions about the veracity of using statistics to understand conflict and political behavior, especially when using predictive or confirmatory analytic methods. The questions are well founded, since a recent article found that potentially up to 54% of statistical results in the medical field are spurious. This should give social scientists pause, since … Continue reading Unpacking P-values: Turning statistical significance into practical significance
Complex Peacekeeping and Tech: Don’t forget the politics and the people
General H.R. McMaster recently published an op-ed in the New York Times on the folly of thinking war can be easily won, and the intellectual gymnastics policy makers will do to maintain that illusion. As I read his analysis, many of his observations are germane when thinking about the drive to "tech-up" peacekeeping operations. McMaster's … Continue reading Complex Peacekeeping and Tech: Don’t forget the politics and the people
“Crowdsharing” and Violence Prevention
One thing I'm working on in my doctoral research is understanding why crowdsourcing works in conflict management and resolution...or should at least logically work based on the various theories of conflict management and resolution developed and refined over the last 40 or so years. In this post, I'm going to use Kenyan election violence as … Continue reading “Crowdsharing” and Violence Prevention
Charles P. Martin-Shields 